Survey_CLW_2002

Abstract

Thus, we proceed to analyze the timing and magnitude of revisions to euro area output, price, and money data, beginning with the advent of European Monetary Union in 1999. As measures of real output, we consider monthly data on industrial production (excluding construction) as well as quarterly data on real GDP. To measure aggregate prices, we consider monthly data on the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and quarterly data on the GDP price deflator. Finally, we consider monthly data for M3, we focus on this measure of money because Coenen and Vega (2001) found that the demand function for M3 has been remarkably stable. In each case, we utilize real-time data series over the period October 1998 through December 2000, as published in consecutive issues of the European Central Bank’s Monthly Bulletin over the period January 1999 through February 2001. Estimates of euro area industrial production in January and February 1999, for instance, were first published in the May 1999 issue of the ECB Monthly Bulletin. The estimates of the index reported in May were 108.6 and 108.2 for January and February industrial output, respectively. Over the following months the statistical authorities revised these estimates upwards. Revisions only ceased by the end of the year. The magnitude of the revisions over this period was 0.7 in both cases. Clearly, these revisions suggest a significant degree of data uncertainty, which persisted for some time.