Survey_BJ_2011

Abstract

By using an NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) -style peak-to-trough measurement of the sizes of macroeconomic contractions. Starting from the annual time series, proportionate contractions in C and GDP were computed from peak to trough over periods of 1 or more years, and declines by 10% or greater were considered. This method yielded 99 disasters for C (for 24 countries) and 157 for GDP (36 countries). The average disaster sizes, subject to the threshold of 10%, were similar for the two measures: 0.215 for C and 0.204 for GDP. The mean durations of the disasters were also similar: 3.6 years for C and 3.5 years for GDP.