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Systemic Risk and Sovereign Debt in the Euro Area
(2013-12-13)
We introduce a new measure of systemic risk, the change in the conditional joint probability of default, which assesses the effects of the interdependence in the financial system on the general default risk of sovereign ...
How do insured deposits affect bank risk? Evidence from the 2008 Emergency Economic Stabilization Act
(2014-10-01)
This paper tests whether an increase in insured deposits causes banks to become more risky. We use variation introduced by the U.S. Emergency Economic Stabilization Act in October 2008, which increased the deposit insurance ...
Trust Me! I am a European Central Banker
(2012-06-01)
In the aftermath of the financial crisis, the ECB has experienced an unprecedented deterioration in the level of trust. This raises the question as to what factors determine trust in central banking. We use a unique ...
Optimal Policy and Taylor Rule Cross-Checking Under Parameter Uncertainty
(2013-09-26)
We examine whether the robustifying nature of Taylor rule cross-checking under model uncertainty carries over to the case of parameter uncertainty. Adjusting monetary policy based on this kind of cross-checking can improve ...
Did Consumers Want Less Debt? Consumer Credit Demand versus Supply in the Wake of the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis
(2014-01-01)
We explore the sources of household balance sheet adjustment following the collapse of the housing market in 2006. First, we use microdata from the Federal Reserve Board’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey to document ...
Banks’ financial distress, lending supply and consumption expenditure
(2014-02-01)
We employ a unique identification strategy linking survey data on household consumption expenditure to bank-level data to estimate the effects of bank financial distress on consumer credit and consumption expenditures. We ...
Mutual Excitation in Eurozone Sovereign CDS
(2014-05-01)
We study self- and cross-excitation of shocks in the Eurozone sovereign CDS market. We adopt a multivariate setting with credit default intensities driven by mutually exciting jump processes, to capture the salient features ...
Austerity, Fiscal Uncertainty, and Economic Growth: Insights from Fiscally Weak EU Countries
(2014-08-08)
Recent empirical evidence suggests that during the last years fiscally weak European countries significantly cut their R&D budgets in an effort to reduce their deficit, according to the spirit of the Fiscal Compact. We ...
Exit Strategies
(2014-04-01)
We study alternative scenarios for exiting the post-crisis fiscal and monetary accommodation using a macromodel where banks choose their capital structure and are subject to runs. Under a Taylor rule, the post-crisis ...
Vertical Fiscal Imbalances and the Accumulation of Government Debt
(2014-07-01)
"The implications of delegating fiscal decision making power to sub-national governments has become an area of significant interest over the past two decades, in the expectation that these reforms will lead to better and ...